How do you decide the victor of a war?
In a war as strategic and intricate as the one in Iran, it’s not as simple as the last man standing. Perhaps the only measure we have for deciding this war is looking at Trump’s objectives, and how they have held up after a ceasefire was reached.
Obliterating Iran’s ability to create a nuclear weapon seems to be what President Trump has settled on as the primary goal of the war. While there is little evidence to believe that Iran’s enriched uranium has been wiped out, Trump and his officials seem optimistic about a peace deal that would likely involve Iran surrendering the potential for a future nuclear weapon.
While this kind of peace deal is possible, it is very likely that Iran will continue to pursue its nuclear program regardless of whatever terms are agreed upon considering that regime change efforts have largely failed. Some experts have asserted that Iran may be more motivated now than ever to finish its nuclear weapons development.
While a nuclear weapon remains out of sight, we don’t need to predict whether Iran will win something from the war; Iran already secured control over the Strait of Hormuz.
Immediately after Israel and the United States launched missiles into Iran on Feb. 28, Iran issued warnings forbidding oil tankers to pass through the strait, reportedly planted sea mines throughout it, and attacked 21 merchant ships passing without clearance from Iran.
What resulted has been described as the largest disruption to the global energy supply since the 1970s energy crisis and potentially the largest disruption to the world oil market ever.
Trump has made it very clear that he desperately wants the strait to be reopened, using language that I will not repeat to demand that Iran let traffic return to normal. While this may happen in the near future, market experts have predicted that oil prices might take months or years to return to pre-war levels. The oil market may never fully recover, as Iran’s show of force may cause lasting anxiety in oil merchants looking to use the strait for transportation of oil and other resources.
Americans who have driven in recent weeks have felt the war’s effects firsthand, and the impact is even more severe in countries elsewhere.
Rarely will a country have the ability to create such a powerfully negative effect on nearly the entire world like this by itself, but because of Trump’s attempt to stop Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, Iran has now been handed a global weapon of its own.
This development will have a largely similar effect to Iran possessing a nuclear weapon. Iran now has displayed a highly powerful tool which it can use whenever it wants to get its way in a conflict, and you can take it from Trump to see how much it stings when Iran uses it.
Additionally, Iran did allow some ships to pass through the strait throughout the war if they were tied to Iran’s allies, or more recently, if the ship paid a $2 million toll, showing that Iran can use this to benefit itself and its allies during times of conflict.
While an Iranian nuclear program will likely continue in the future, Iran doesn’t need to wait for a weapon to deter conflict the next time a president wishes to blindly walk into a war in the Middle East.
Ali Vaez, Iran project director for the International Crisis Group, said the U.S. attempt to stop Iran from developing a weapon of mass destruction effectively handed Iran “a weapon of mass disruption.”
